Just eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
